Wednesday morning: CPI day. The ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index at 11:30am AEST, the last data point before the RBA cash rate decision on Monday 11 August. Consensus is 3 point 7 per cent year on year on the trimmed mean. Below 3 point 7 seals the case for a hold. A 3 point 8 print keeps a hike alive. A 3 point 9 or higher print pushes hike odds sharply higher. Governor Bullock yesterday delivered a balanced hawkish message and futures cut the August hike odds from around 30 per cent to near 20 per cent. Myer shares fell 12 per cent on Monday on a soft sales guide, a dovish consumer signal in its own right. Myer Stocktake and David Jones EOFY close by Thursday 31 July, and the 16 cent fuel excise cut fully unwinds at 11:59pm Sunday 2 August. Today’s Top 5 opens with Decjuba at up to 70 per cent off and closes with Robert Gordon at 60 per cent off.
11:30am Today: The Trimmed Mean That Decides 11 August
At 11:30am AEST this morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases both the June quarter Consumer Price Index and the June monthly headline CPI. It is the last major inflation reading before the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Monday 11 August, and the number that will decide whether the cash rate holds at 4 point 35 per cent or lifts to 4 point 60 per cent, per the RBA Coming Up calendar. Consensus reported by Elias Haddad at BBH sits at a headline of 4 point 0 per cent year on year and a trimmed mean of 3 point 7 per cent year on year (0 point 9 per cent quarter on quarter), matching the March quarter reading and running just below the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy trimmed mean track of 3 point 8 per cent, per the BBH markets note on 28 July 2026.
The read across for the RBA is now well anchored on the trimmed mean, the underlying inflation gauge the board watches most closely. A trimmed mean at or below 3 point 6 per cent skews decisively toward a hold on 11 August, likely with dovish forward guidance and a softer Australian dollar. A print at 3 point 7 to 3 point 8 per cent, in line with consensus and the May SoMP forecast, keeps a hike live but likely delivers a hold with a warning that upside inflation risk has not passed. A trimmed mean at 3 point 9 per cent or above, particularly if services inflation is still above 4 per cent, sharply lifts the probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4 point 60 per cent, per the Watcher.news RBA outlook on 27 July. Abhijit Surya at Capital Economics and Diana Mousina at AMP see the trimmed mean broadly on track with the RBA’s May forecasts, per the PIP Theory CPI preview. Belinda Allen at CBA sees a hold as the base case with an August hike risk on the topside. Taylor Nugent at NAB and Luci Ellis at Westpac still see an August hike as the more likely outcome, per the NAB rate call update on 25 July.
Practical read for households. Anyone with a variable rate home loan or an unfixed portion of a fixed rate loan will hear the CPI print at 11:30am, and rate futures pricing will move within minutes. On a 500,000 dollar home loan at a 6 point 24 per cent variable rate, a 25 basis point August hike lifts monthly repayments by roughly 82 dollars. If the trimmed mean prints at 3 point 9 per cent or higher, expect a scramble for refinance quotes by early afternoon, per the Canstar home loan rate comparison.
After Bullock: Rate Futures Reset From 30 To 20 Per Cent
RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered her Anika Foundation lunch address in Sydney at 1:05pm AEST yesterday, and the tone was balanced with a hawkish bias. Bullock said the board remains prepared to act as required and is watching services inflation and the labour market closely, while stressing the RBA is patient and data dependent, per the RBA Q and A transcript published 28 July. Bullock did not signal an August hike, and Elias Haddad at BBH read the tone as raising the bar for a hike relative to expectations. Australian dollar rate futures cut August hike odds from around 30 per cent before the speech to roughly 20 per cent by Tuesday close, per the FXStreet BBH note on 28 July 2026. The market is now effectively priced for a hold on 11 August unless the CPI print at 11:30am today surprises to the upside.
The consumer signal from Myer’s Monday share price move reinforces the dovish case. Myer shares fell 12 per cent on Monday 27 July after the company flagged preliminary FY26 sales up just 0 point 3 per cent on a pro forma basis, with June sales down 5 point 5 per cent and July sales down 4 per cent, per Reuters on 27 July 2026. The read across is that discretionary spending remains soft even before any further tightening from the RBA. David Bassanese at Betashares, writing in the Australian on 28 July, argues that a soft trimmed mean today plus a soft consumer signal from Myer removes the case for a pre emptive August hike. A hot trimmed mean today would put the RBA in an uncomfortable position of tightening into a visibly weakening consumer, per Cameron England writing at The West Australian on 27 July.
Myer Stocktake, David Jones EOFY: Two Days Left
The two department store post EOFY sales that opened in mid July close by end of trading on Thursday 31 July, exactly two days from this morning. The Myer Stocktake Sale runs up to 61 per cent off select kitchen appliances, up to 50 per cent off personal care and hair tools including Dyson, Shark and GHD, up to 60 per cent off Samsonite and American Tourister travel gear, up to 54 per cent off cookware and up to 20 per cent off select Lego sets, per Getprice on 27 July 2026. The David Jones EOFY sale continues alongside on womenswear, menswear, homewares and beauty. Both close by end of Thursday 31 July, per ShopBack on 24 July 2026.
Practical read for Wednesday. If a household is upgrading a coffee machine, a small appliance, a suitcase before winter school holiday travel, a hair tool or a Lego set for a birthday, the Myer Stocktake window closes Thursday and stock on the sharpest cuts is thinning. Today’s Top 5 features Myer at up to 60 per cent off precisely because the final 48 hours is now. Do not expect deeper cuts on Thursday; expect stockouts on the sharpest lines. If today’s CPI prints soft and the RBA holds on 11 August, some late Thursday and Friday markdowns may nudge deeper as retailers push through winter inventory. If it prints hot, expect Myer and David Jones to hold pricing firm through Thursday close.
Fuel Excise: The Final Countdown
The 16 cent per litre temporary fuel excise cut fully unwinds at 11:59pm Sunday 2 August, and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed on Sunday’s ABC Insiders that the relief will not be extended, per SBS News on 27 July 2026. The ACCC July fuel price report shows national retail petrol at 179 point 5 cents per litre across the five capital cities, up 28 cents per litre since 30 June, with diesel at 214 point 9 cents. From Monday 3 August, expect a further 15 to 18 cents per litre step up at metropolitan retail sites, per IndexBox on the ACCC July 2026 report.
Wednesday game plan on fuel. Check MotorMouth, PetrolSpy or the free 7 Eleven Fuel Lock app for a cycle low near home before Sunday night. On a two car household, filling both tanks today or tomorrow at cycle low, and locking a second tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock or Costco Fuel for the seven day price hold, saves roughly 45 to 60 dollars over waiting until Monday 3 August. Families still on winter school holidays should top up jerry cans and any camper trailer or boat tank between Wednesday afternoon and Saturday morning while metro pricing is still relatively low.
11:31am Game Plan: What To Do For Each CPI Outcome
Three scenarios play out from 11:31am AEST this morning. Scenario one, trimmed mean at or below 3 point 6 per cent (soft). The Australian dollar softens, rate futures fully price a hold for 11 August, and refinance broker phone lines are quiet in the afternoon. This is the day to book a refinance appointment for late next week if the household home loan rate is above 6 point 3 per cent, and to lock in high yield savings account rates before deposit takers cut. UBank, ING and Macquarie savings accounts currently sit above 5 per cent per annum on the top bonus tier, per Canstar savings account comparison.
Scenario two, trimmed mean at 3 point 7 to 3 point 8 per cent (consensus). Rate futures unchanged, the Australian dollar holds, and the market continues to price roughly a 20 per cent chance of an August hike. This is a status quo afternoon: keep the refinance quotes ready but do not act, and do not buy anything today at Myer or David Jones on the expectation of deeper cuts on Thursday. Scenario three, trimmed mean at 3 point 9 per cent or higher (hot). The Australian dollar strengthens, rate futures reprice sharply to 60 to 70 per cent probability of an August hike, and refinance broker phone lines will be difficult to book by 2pm. This is the day to call the household mortgage broker before lunch, not after. Every day of delay on a hot print costs the household roughly one 24th of a monthly repayment on the higher rate.
Wednesday Top 5 Deals
Discount
DecjubaWomen's WearUp to 70 per cent off Decjuba: winter knits, coats, dresses, blazers, denim, boots and accessories from the Australian owned womens fashion label, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal and free returns on eligible orders.70%OFF2
Colette HaymanFashion69 per cent off Colette Hayman: handbags, wallets, jewellery, hair accessories, occasion pieces and travel bags from the Australian owned accessories retailer, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over 60 dollars.69%OFF3
Academy BrandMen's WearUp to 60 per cent off Academy Brand: mens shirts, chinos, jeans, jackets, tees and knitwear from the Australian owned Bondi menswear label, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australian shipping over 100 dollars.60%OFF4
MyerDepartment StoresUp to 60 per cent off Myer: kitchen appliances, hair tools, cookware, travel gear, mens and womens fashion and homewares in the final two days of the Stocktake Sale, with Afterpay, Zip and Myer One rewards on every dollar spent.60%OFF5
Robert GordonHomewaresUp to 60 per cent off Robert Gordon: hand thrown Australian made pottery, dinnerware, mugs, plates, bowls, homewares and gift sets from the Pakenham family owned ceramics maker since 1978, with free shipping over 150 dollars.60%OFFEvery store in Wednesday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was checked against the store’s current sale page before publication. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Decjuba at up to 70 per cent off is the outright winner this morning on winter knits, coats and boots, and Colette Hayman at 69 per cent off is the second sharpest cut in the pool on handbags and jewellery. Myer at up to 60 per cent off is a two day play only, closing Thursday. If a rate hike lands on 11 August, buying at these sale prices today with Afterpay locks in the ticket without paying interest.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Wednesday scroll ahead of Thursday’s Myer close and the Sunday 2 August fuel excise unwind. Australian Leather (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) is at up to 50 per cent off Australian made ugg boots and sheepskin slippers, hand crafted in Sydney since 1988, worth a look before winter closes out. Hallenstein Brothers holds up to 50 per cent off mens shirts, jackets, knitwear and jeans. Sussan is at 50 per cent off knits, dresses and lingerie from the Australian womens fashion brand established in 1939. Veronika Maine holds 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses, coats and knitwear. David Jones EOFY continues alongside Myer Stocktake before Thursday 31 July close on womenswear, menswear, homewares and beauty. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets between this morning and the RBA meeting. Wednesday 29 July at 11:30am AEST (today): the ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index and the June monthly headline CPI, the release that fixes the inflation reading heading into the RBA 11 August decision. Thursday 31 July: last day of the Myer Stocktake Sale and the David Jones EOFY sale, plus RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivers a fireside chat at 10:30am AEST. Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm: the temporary fuel excise cut fully unwinds and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August. Monday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision, currently priced at roughly a 20 per cent chance of a 25 basis point hike to 4 point 60 per cent, with the CPI print at 11:30am this morning likely to move that pricing sharply in either direction.
Our Take
Wednesday 29 July is one of the most consequential mornings for Australian household finances in the RBA cycle. Three tangible jobs before 11:31am AEST. First, if the household has a variable rate home loan of 400,000 dollars or more, save or print three refinance quotes right now from Canstar, Mozo or Finder so any call to a broker after the print takes 10 minutes, not two hours. Second, if the household is upgrading a small appliance, a hair tool or a suitcase, decide today whether Myer Stocktake at up to 60 per cent off is the right buy, because Thursday closes it. Third, plan a Saturday morning fuel run to lock in cycle low pricing on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock before Sunday night. Every household that gets these three jobs done between this morning and Sunday will be materially better positioned regardless of what the trimmed mean prints at 11:30am.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter coat under 100” or “kitchen appliance clearance”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales on Wednesday morning to make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.