Friday morning, 48 hours after the print. The June quarter trimmed mean CPI undershoot at 3 point 6 per cent has now been ratified by every Big Four bank plus AMP: no RBA hike on 11 August, hold priced with better than 96 per cent conviction. Overnight the Commonwealth Bank added its formal reaffirmation, with head of Australian economics Belinda Allen writing that CBA expects the RBA to remain on hold in August and for the remainder of 2026. But Friday is also the day the fuel countdown becomes real. The 16 cent per litre temporary excise cut fully unwinds at 11:59pm this Sunday 2 August, two days from this morning, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed on Tuesday afternoon that the relief will end at midnight on Sunday. Sydney unleaded is retailing at 186 point 8 cents per litre this morning; Monday morning it will be closer to 204 cents. Fill the tanks this weekend. Today’s Top 5 opens with Showpo at up to 80 per cent off.
Second Calm Morning: The August Hold Is Now Consensus
Two mornings after the softer than expected June quarter CPI print, the picture is calm and stable. The trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation the Reserve Bank of Australia watches most closely came in at 3 point 6 per cent year on year for the June quarter, below the 3 point 7 per cent consensus and below the RBA’s own 3 point 8 per cent May forecast. Yesterday, the last remaining Big Four holdout, Westpac, formally abandoned its rate hike call, and overnight the Commonwealth Bank added its own reaffirmation. Belinda Allen, CommBank head of Australian economics, wrote that CBA continues to expect the RBA to remain on hold in August and for the remainder of 2026, and now expects RBA rate cuts to commence from early 2027, per CommBank Newsroom on 30 July 2026. That leaves NAB, Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, Westpac and AMP all aligned on a hold on 11 August. Overnight indexed swap markets now price the probability of an August hike at 3 to 4 per cent, per FXStreet on 29 July 2026.
The RBA itself has not endorsed a rate cut path yet. Governor Michele Bullock has continued to signal that the board remains prepared to raise rates again if needed and that returning inflation to the 2 to 3 per cent target band remains the primary mandate, per Reuters on 30 July 2026. The trimmed mean at 3 point 6 per cent is still comfortably above the top of that target band. What has changed is the direction: the underlying inflation measure has moved sideways for three consecutive prints, which is enough for the RBA to sit through August and September rather than force a fourth hike into an already visibly weak consumer. For a variable rate mortgage on 500,000 dollars at 6 point 24 per cent that had been priced last week for a 21 per cent chance of an August hike, that risk is now essentially removed. The monthly repayment scenario that would have added roughly 82 dollars per month has been withdrawn, per Finder RBA cash rate tracker. Households can now plan the August budget against a rate that is very likely to hold through spring.
Fuel Countdown: 48 Hours To Sunday Midnight
The fuel excise unwind is now inside the 48 hour window. Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed on Tuesday afternoon that the temporary 16 cent per litre excise cut, introduced in late April in response to the Iran conflict oil price spike, will not be extended and will fully unwind at 11:59pm on Sunday 2 August. The fuel excise relief will end at midnight on Sunday, Chalmers said, per SBS News on 29 July 2026. The full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August, and combined with the 1 point 5 per cent inflation indexation that resets on 1 August, the pump price uplift on Monday morning is approximately 17 cents per litre at most metropolitan retail sites, per CarExpert on 29 July 2026. Peter Khoury from the NRMA has indicated the increase is likely to be 17 cents rather than 16 cents once indexation is layered on, per Nine on 30 July 2026.
The immediate cost read for households. Sydney metropolitan unleaded retail is currently around 186 point 8 cents per litre; Monday morning it will be closer to 204 cents per litre. Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth sit within a few cents of that Sydney reference. On a 65 litre tank fill, that is an extra 10 to 11 dollars every time a household fills up from Monday, and for a two car commuting household filling weekly, the running weekly cost lifts by roughly 22 dollars, per Bushletter on 29 July 2026. The Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge also unwinds on Monday from 16 point 4 cents per litre back to 32 point 4 cents per litre, which will filter through to freight costs on grocery, hardware and appliance deliveries over the following weeks, per ABC News on 29 July 2026.
Weekend Fill Window: Where To Look, What To Lock
The weekend game plan for Australian households comes down to three tools and one timing call. First, check the local price cycle now. Use MotorMouth or PetrolSpy to compare prices within a five kilometre radius of home this Friday and Saturday morning. In most metropolitan cycles, Friday morning and Saturday morning sit at or near cycle low, with Sunday afternoon typically the first uptick as retailers reset ahead of the excise resumption. Second, use the 7 Eleven Fuel Lock app to lock the current price for up to seven days at any participating 7 Eleven site. That means a household can lock Friday’s cycle low, drive on the current tank through the weekend, and redeem the locked price mid week on the second tank. Costco members can layer a similar hold via Costco Fuel’s standard practice of stable weekly pricing at the pump. Third, top up every fuel storage vessel the household controls before Sunday night: primary car tanks, second vehicle, camper trailer, caravan, boat outboard, ride on mower jerry cans, and any generator or workshop fuel supply.
The math on a two car commuting household. Filling both tanks Friday or Saturday morning at 186 to 188 cents per litre saves roughly 10 to 11 dollars per tank versus Monday pricing at 204 cents, so 20 to 22 dollars across the initial fill. Locking one 65 litre tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock and redeeming mid week saves another 10 to 11 dollars. Filling a 65 litre jerry can supply for a caravan or ride on mower saves another 10 to 11 dollars. Total weekend savings run to roughly 45 to 60 dollars per two car household against waiting until Monday, per Carsales on 29 July 2026. Regional and outer metropolitan households will feel the excise unwind sharpest because the local cycle has less spread, so Friday afternoon fills are the safest play outside the major capitals. Do not wait for Sunday; retailers are already progressively lifting shelf prices ahead of the midnight cutoff.
Post EOFY Quiet Window: Spring Inventory Lands Mid August
Friday 31 July closes the June and July retail sale window. The extended EOFY tail that carried Myer, David Jones, JB Hi-Fi and Officeworks through July is now largely done, and the traditional post EOFY discount lull sits between this weekend and the mid August spring inventory drop. ShopBack noted on 24 July that the post EOFY window closes as spring inventory lands from mid August, and shoppers should either close on remaining winter clearance this weekend or wait for the spring transition sales that historically start around 15 to 20 August, per ShopBack on 24 July 2026. The June retail trade data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday morning showed department stores down 2 point 1 per cent, clothing and footwear down 1 point 4 per cent, and household goods retailing broadly flat, per AreaSearch retail benchmarks on 30 July 2026. That weakness is the backdrop for what looks like sharper spring transition discounting from mid August through September as retailers work through carryover winter stock.
Practical read for the household spring wardrobe. If a purchase is on the shortlist for this weekend such as a winter coat, ski jacket, boots or a womens knit, this weekend and next week is the window to close it before winter stock is pulled from floor. If the purchase is a spring or summer item such as swimwear, activewear, spring dresses or lightweight jackets, waiting for the 15 to 20 August spring transition drop typically pays off with 30 to 40 per cent introductory offers on fresh stock. Today’s Top 5 leans into that reality: Showpo at up to 80 per cent off is the sharpest cut in the pool on womens fashion and covers both winter clearance and early spring drops. City Chic at 50 per cent off runs the same play in plus size fashion. UGG Express at up to 80 per cent off catches the final winter Ugg boot window before spring. Dusk at 50 per cent off homewares and Eckersleys at 50 per cent off art supplies cover the non fashion side of the household budget where price discipline still applies.
The RBA Pathway: Hold Priced, But Bullock Still Watching
Looking through Friday morning to the RBA cash rate decision on Monday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST, the hold is now overwhelmingly priced. Overnight index swap markets currently attach a 3 to 4 per cent probability to an August hike and a 96 to 97 per cent probability to hold at 4 point 35 per cent, per FXStreet on 29 July 2026. But that is only the near term picture. Governor Michele Bullock delivered a balanced address in Sydney on Tuesday morning that reiterated the board remains prepared to raise rates again if needed, and the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy released on 11 August will be the next big directional catalyst. TD Securities strategists expect the RBA to remain in pause and observe mode and to wait for the September quarter CPI print due in late October before shifting stance, per FXStreet TD Securities on 29 July 2026.
What that means for the household budget through spring. The rate you have on the mortgage this Friday morning is very likely the rate you have through August, September and October. That does not mean rate cuts are coming; the trimmed mean at 3 point 6 per cent is still comfortably above the top of the 2 to 3 per cent target band. But it does mean the household can plan against a stable variable rate through year end at minimum. If the household home loan sits above 6 point 3 per cent variable, this is the week to refresh three refinance quotes on Canstar, Mozo or Finder. Lenders are pricing aggressively now that hike risk is off the table through spring. On the savings side, top bonus tier savings rates above 5 per cent at UBank, ING and Macquarie will start to slip as banks reprice around a longer hold, per Canstar savings account comparison. Lock any rate that matters this week if emergency savings are not yet parked.
Friday Top 5 Deals
Discount
ShowpoWomen's WearUp to 80 per cent off Showpo: dresses, tops, denim, knitwear, coats and shoes from the Australian owned online womens fashion label founded in Sydney in 2010, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal and free Australian shipping over 50 dollars.80%OFF2
UGG ExpressUgg BootsUp to 80 per cent off UGG Express: authentic Australian made sheepskin boots, slippers, moccasins and mens boots from the Australian family owned Ugg boot retailer with warehouses in Melbourne and Sydney, with Afterpay, Zip and Australia wide dispatch.80%OFF3
City ChicPlus Size FashionUp to 50 per cent off City Chic: plus size dresses, tops, denim, coats, swimwear and lingerie in sizes 12 to 24 from the Australian owned Sydney based plus size fashion specialist, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal and free returns Australia wide.50%OFF4
DuskCandles & HomewaresUp to 50 per cent off Dusk: candles, diffusers, home fragrance, gift sets, throws, cushions and homewares from the Australian owned candle and homewares chain with over 130 stores, with Afterpay, Zip and free click and collect.50%OFF5
EckersleysArt & CraftUp to 50 per cent off Eckersleys Art and Craft: canvases, acrylics, oils, watercolours, brushes, sketchbooks and craft supplies from the Australian owned family art supplies chain since 1938, with Afterpay, Zip and free click and collect Australia wide.50%OFFEvery store in Friday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was checked against the store’s current sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Showpo at up to 80 per cent off is the outright winner this morning on womens dresses, tops, denim and coats from the Sydney based womens fashion label founded in 2010. UGG Express at up to 80 per cent off catches authentic Australian made sheepskin boots in the final winter window. City Chic at 50 per cent off runs the same play in Australian owned plus size fashion sizing 12 to 24. Dusk at 50 per cent off delivers Australian owned candles, diffusers and home fragrance ahead of Fathers Day gifting on 7 September. Eckersleys at 50 per cent off covers art supplies, canvases and craft essentials from the Australian family owned art supplies chain since 1938.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Friday scroll ahead of the Sunday 2 August fuel excise unwind. Nine West (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) is at 50 per cent off womens shoes, boots, heels and handbags from the Australian licensed footwear brand. Sussan is at 50 per cent off knits, dresses and lingerie from the Australian womens fashion brand established in 1939. Lee Mathews holds 40 per cent off womens tops, dresses and knitwear from the Sydney based designer label. Novo Shoes is at up to 40 per cent off womens footwear including boots and heels. Veronika Maine holds 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses, coats and knitwear. UGG Australia is at 30 per cent off classic sheepskin boots, slippers and moccasins alongside sister label UGG Express. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Three dates matter for Australian shopper wallets between this morning and the RBA meeting. Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm: the temporary 16 cent per litre fuel excise cut fully unwinds and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August, with roughly 17 cents per litre added at metropolitan pumps. Wednesday 6 August: the June quarter Wage Price Index lands at 11:30am AEST from the ABS, the last key data print before the RBA meeting five days later and the read on how strong wages growth still is against a slowing headline CPI. Monday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision, now overwhelmingly priced as a hold at 4 point 35 per cent, with the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy the next big directional catalyst for household mortgage and savings planning through spring.
Our Take
Friday 31 July is the second calm morning for Australian mortgage households in what has been a bruising winter for cost of living. The trimmed mean did the work, Westpac capitulated on Wednesday, CommBank reaffirmed the hold overnight, and the RBA now sits with four Big Four banks plus AMP aligned on 11 August. The rate you have today is very likely the rate you have through spring. But that stability comes alongside the fuel excise cliff on Sunday night. Filling both tanks at cycle low this Friday or Saturday morning saves roughly 45 to 60 dollars for a two car household against Monday pricing at 204 cents per litre. Use the 7 Eleven Fuel Lock app to lock a second tank for the following week. Top up every fuel vessel the household controls: caravan, boat, jerry cans, ride on mower. Do not wait for Sunday.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter clearance jacket” or “candles Fathers Day”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Friday morning to make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.