Most of the country wakes to a King’s Birthday long weekend with EOFY week two firing on every category, but the mood music underneath is heavy. KPMG’s June Retail Health Index shows consumer sentiment crashed from 91.6 to 80.1, the steepest single-month drop since 2023. Three rate hikes earlier this year still bite, the next RBA call lands 16 June, and 73% of households are now waiting for sales events before they spend. The discounts are real this week. The plan needs to be real too.
Sentiment Crashes 11.5 Points As Households Tighten Up
The June Retail Health Index from KPMG, authored by Chief Economist Dr Brendan Rynne, shows the Westpac to Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled from 91.6 in March to 80.1 in April. That is the sharpest one-month fall since the cost-of-living crunch of 2023, and the index has now slipped back into clearly pessimistic territory after holding above the neutral 100 line through most of 2024.
The headline RHI itself nudged from -0.41 to -0.39 over the December to March quarters, which Dr Rynne notes is technically an improvement, but everything except sentiment is moving sideways. Inflation-adjusted retail turnover fell 0.6% in the March quarter. The household saving ratio dropped from 6.9% to 6.4%, suggesting families are dipping into savings rather than building them. KPMG does not expect a sustained recovery in retail until late calendar 2027.
For shoppers the takeaway is twofold. First, 73% of Australian households now actively wait for sale events before they buy, and 81% shop around for the best deal. That is a structural shift toward EOFY, Click Frenzy and Boxing Day as the only viable buying windows. Second, the spending that does happen is concentrated in essentials: groceries alone now make up 32% of total online spend, fashion 20%, health and beauty 11%. Deferrable categories (furniture, white goods, big-ticket tech) are where the deepest EOFY discounts will land this week.
King’s Birthday Long Weekend: Two-Speed Retail
Today is the King’s Birthday public holiday in NSW, Victoria, the ACT, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which gives most of the country a three-day shopping window. Queensland and Western Australia trade as normal (Queensland observes the holiday on 5 October, WA on 28 September), so Brisbane and Perth readers are looking at a regular Monday.
The practical retail consequence is timing. Southern-state shoppers should expect quieter physical stores at opening, then a midmorning surge through David Jones, Myer and JB Hi-Fi, with online traffic running heaviest from late afternoon. David Jones is currently flagging up to 50% off fashion and homeware (offer expires 8 June, today). Myer’s EOFY runs to 30 June with savings across appliances, beauty, tech, luggage and home brands.
The smart play if you are in a holiday state is to lock in your one or two biggest planned purchases this morning (online beats the queues), then leave the smaller browsing for tomorrow when the rush has passed. If you are in Queensland or WA, your weekly shop sits in the quietest day of the EOFY window, which is its own advantage.
What To Watch This Week: Rate Decision, Business Confidence, Click Frenzy
Three macro signals land between now and next Monday that all feed back into how aggressively retailers price the second half of EOFY. The NAB Business Confidence release lands at 11:30am AEST on Tuesday 9 June (tomorrow), and the read on retailers’ own outlook will shape how willing they are to discount deeper into late June. IG flagged this as the week’s key local data point.
The RBA cash rate decision lands Monday 16 June. The cash rate currently sits at 4.35% after three hikes earlier in 2026, and consensus is leaning toward a hold, but any hawkish commentary from Governor Bullock would tighten consumer spend immediately. Then on Thursday 18 June at 7pm AEST, Click Frenzy returns for a week-long EOFY event, free for retailers to participate. Co-founder Gabby Leibovich confirmed the platform expects a broader retailer lineup than 2024 thanks to the no-fee model.
Top 5 Deals of the Day
Five stores. Five categories. The deepest headline discounts surfaced from a sweep of every retailer on It’s On Sale, audited at dawn.
Discount
SportsgirlWomens FashionUp to 90% off Sportsgirl’s runway-leaning sale floor: party dresses, knits, denim and accessories with EOFY clearance running deepest in the popular size 6 to 14 range.90%OFF2
RebelSport & FitnessUp to 85% off Rebel’s fangear, plus a deep sweep through running, training and basketball footwear from mid-tier and tier-one brands.85%OFF3
Elite SupplementsHealth & SupplementsUp to 80% off Elite Supplements’ clearance: protein, pre-workout, creatine and recovery from Australian-made brands in stack-friendly sizes.80%OFF4
Kick Push SkateSkate & WheelsUp to 79% off the Kick Push Skate sale: complete decks, trucks, wheels, helmets and apparel from skate-owned Australian labels.79%OFF5
BakuSwim & BeachUp to 70% off Baku’s swim and beach clearance: bikinis, one-pieces, rash vests and resort wear, AU-owned with local fulfilment.70%OFF% discounts shown are indicative across each store’s sale range. Individual product savings vary.
Other Deals Worth a Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of strong supporting acts are running in the Today’s Sales pool. DECJUBA is at up to 70% off sitewide fashion. Veronika Maine is also at 70% across its workwear and occasion edits. Colette Hayman is at 69% across bags and accessories. Glassons is at 63% across knits and basics. For homewares specifically, Dusk is at 60% on candles, diffusers and gifting, and Original Mattress Factory is at 60% on its Cloud 9 range.
Reader Takeaway
Sentiment is at a three-year low, but the discounts are genuinely deep this EOFY week. The discipline that has been forced on households (planning, waiting, shopping around) is the same discipline that turns a sale event into actual value. If you have a long weekend, use the quiet morning for the one or two big-ticket items you actually planned for. Keep the rest of the browse for tomorrow. Watch NAB business confidence at 11:30am AEST Tuesday, the RBA decision next Monday, and Click Frenzy from 7pm Thursday 18 June.
