Thursday morning after the print: yesterday’s June quarter CPI undershot on every measure that matters. The trimmed mean printed at 3 point 6 per cent year on year, below the 3 point 7 per cent consensus and firmly below the RBA’s own 3 point 8 per cent May forecast. Headline CPI came in at 3 point 8 per cent versus a 4 point 0 per cent consensus. The ASX 200 rallied 1 per cent to a five month high of 9,038 points, the Australian dollar softened to 69 point 46 US cents, and all four major banks are now aligned on an RBA hold at 4 point 35 per cent on 11 August. August hike pricing collapsed from 21 per cent before the release to 2 point 6 per cent by Wednesday close. Myer Stocktake and David Jones EOFY close tomorrow Friday 31 July, and the 16 cent fuel excise cut fully unwinds at 11:59pm Sunday 2 August, three days from this morning. Today’s Top 5 opens with Mossman at up to 70 per cent off.
The Print That Sealed The August Hold
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter Consumer Price Index at 11:30am AEST yesterday, and the numbers were softer than every forecaster on the street had penciled in. Headline CPI slowed to 3 point 8 per cent year on year for the June quarter, down from 4 point 0 per cent in May and below the 4 point 0 per cent consensus. The June monthly headline CPI fell 0 point 1 per cent for a second consecutive month, taking the annual rate to 3 point 8 per cent. Most consequentially for the Reserve Bank of Australia, the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation the RBA watches most closely printed at 3 point 6 per cent year on year, below the 3 point 7 per cent consensus and below the RBA’s own 3 point 8 per cent May Statement on Monetary Policy forecast, per the ABS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026.
Rachael McCririck, ABS head of price statistics, framed the read plainly. Looking through the bigger price movements, underlying inflation is steady at 3 point 6 per cent in the 12 months to June, the same reading as May, per Reuters on 29 July 2026. TD Securities strategists noted that the trimmed mean undershot the May SoMP forecast and expects the RBA to remain in pause and observe mode at the 11 August meeting, per FXStreet on 29 July 2026. The consensus view before yesterday morning had a 21 per cent chance of a rate hike on 11 August. By Wednesday close that had collapsed to 2 point 6 per cent, per news.com.au on 29 July 2026.
Practical read for households this morning. A variable rate mortgage on 500,000 dollars at 6 point 24 per cent that was priced for a 21 per cent chance of an August hike is now priced for essentially no August hike at all. The monthly repayment scenario that lifted 82 dollars per month if the RBA moved on 11 August is off the table. That is a small but bankable buffer to redirect into the fuel top up window that closes on Sunday night or into a Myer Stocktake purchase before Friday close. It does not mean rate cuts are coming. Marc Jocum at Global X ETFs described the print as the Reserve Bank’s first genuine sigh of relief in months, per AAP News on 29 July 2026, and Josh Gilbert at eToro warned that core inflation at 3 point 6 per cent is still a long way from the 2 point 5 per cent midpoint the RBA is chasing, per Motley Fool Australia on 29 July 2026. The message for households is not celebration; it is stability. The rate you have today is very likely the rate you have on Melbourne Cup Day.
Big Four Aligned On Hold: The Westpac Capitulation
The most consequential shift in the aftermath of yesterday’s print did not come from the market. It came from Westpac. Westpac had been the only remaining member of the Big Four still forecasting a rate hike on 11 August, and yesterday morning chief economist Luci Ellis, who spent three decades at the RBA before joining Westpac, formally abandoned that call. We no longer expect rate hikes by the RBA this year, Ellis wrote. Inflation has been more benign than we feared and the RBA forecast, per news.com.au on 29 July 2026. That leaves NAB, Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and Westpac all aligned on a hold on 11 August for the first time in this tightening cycle. NAB flagged that the print raises the bar to additional tightening further and continues to expect rates on hold this year with a gradual normalisation starting May 2027, per NAB Trade on 29 July 2026.
The market response backed the pivot. The ASX 200 lifted 90 point 80 points or 1 point 01 per cent to close at 9,038 point 6 points, its highest level in almost five months and the third consecutive session up, per Trading Economics on 29 July 2026. All 11 sectors finished higher, led by healthcare up 4 per cent and consumer discretionary up 2 point 4 per cent. Consumer discretionary strength is the tell. Retailers and consumer stocks rallied on the read that softer inflation removes the case for further tightening into an already visibly weak consumer, and that in turn removes downside risk to Christmas trading. The Australian dollar slid to 69 point 46 US cents from 69 point 71 the day before, the weakest level in roughly two weeks, per Trading Economics on the AUD on 29 July 2026. Travellers heading north for the winter school holidays or booking spring international travel should note that lower AUD sits alongside the fuel excise unwind on Sunday; both add to the household cost of movement for August and September.
Myer Stocktake, David Jones EOFY: 48 Hours Left
The two department store post EOFY sales that opened in mid July close by end of trading tomorrow Friday 31 July, exactly 48 hours from this morning. The Myer Stocktake Sale runs up to 61 per cent off select kitchen appliances, up to 50 per cent off personal care and hair tools including Dyson, Shark and GHD, up to 60 per cent off Samsonite and American Tourister travel gear, up to 54 per cent off cookware and up to 20 per cent off select Lego sets. The Myer offers hub lists 68,803 items on sale as of Thursday morning. The David Jones EOFY sale continues alongside on womenswear, menswear, homewares and beauty. Both close by end of Friday 31 July, per ShopBack on 24 July 2026.
Practical read for Thursday and Friday. With the RBA rate call now effectively neutralised until at least September, the pressure to defer a household appliance upgrade, a suitcase before spring travel or a hair tool for a birthday has lifted. If a purchase was already on the shortlist for August, the Myer Stocktake window closes Friday and stock on the sharpest cuts is thinning fast after a full six weeks of trading. Do not expect deeper cuts on Friday; expect stockouts on the sharpest lines. If the item is not on the shortlist, do not manufacture a reason to buy just because the sale ends Friday. Today’s Top 5 features House at up to 50 per cent off across cookware, small appliances and kitchen tools as an alternative Australian owned homewares option that runs beyond Friday, and Macpac at up to 50 per cent off winter down jackets and hiking gear for households heading into the August school holiday snow window in New South Wales and Victoria.
Fuel Excise: Three Days Out And Confirmed
Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed on Wednesday afternoon that the 16 cent per litre temporary fuel excise cut will not be extended, and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from 11:59pm Sunday 2 August, three days from this morning. Foreign Minister Penny Wong reinforced the message: the intention is for that to discontinue as of this weekend, per The Nightly on 29 July 2026. Combined with the 1 point 5 per cent inflation indexation that resets on 1 August, the pump price uplift from Monday 3 August is approximately 17 point 5 cents per litre at metropolitan retail sites, per CarExpert on 29 July 2026. On a 65 litre tank fill, that is an extra 11 dollars every time a household fills up from Monday, and roughly 45 to 60 dollars per week for a two car commuting household, per Carsales on 29 July 2026.
Thursday and weekend fuel game plan. National average retail unleaded currently sits between 188 and 190 cents per litre, with diesel at roughly 227 cents, per the ACCC weekly report for the week ending 26 July 2026. Between this Thursday morning and Sunday 8pm, check MotorMouth, PetrolSpy or the free 7 Eleven Fuel Lock app for the cycle low near home. For a two car household, filling both tanks at cycle low this weekend and locking a second tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock or Costco Fuel for the seven day price hold saves roughly 45 to 60 dollars over waiting until Monday 3 August. Families with a camper trailer, caravan, boat, jerry can supply or ride on mower should top all of them up between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning. Regional and outer metropolitan sites will feel the excise unwind sharpest because the local cycle has less room to absorb the step change.
The Dovish Buffer And What To Do With It
Thursday 30 July delivers households a small but real buffer. The RBA is not moving on 11 August, mortgage repayments are stable through year end at minimum, and the risk of a fourth rate hike this cycle has been priced out of futures. That freed cash flow of roughly 82 dollars per month per 500,000 dollars of variable rate debt does not need to sit idle. Three concrete moves for the household weekend budget. First, redirect the equivalent of one week of what would have been an August hike buffer into the fuel top up window before Sunday night. Filling two tanks at cycle low Friday or Saturday morning and locking a third tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock or Costco Fuel saves roughly 45 to 60 dollars against Monday pricing.
Second, if the household has a variable rate home loan above 6 point 3 per cent, use this week to refresh three refinance quotes on Canstar, Mozo or Finder. Lenders will price aggressively now that hike risk is off the table for August and likely September. The savings account side of the ledger runs the other direction: UBank, ING and Macquarie top bonus tier savings rates above 5 per cent will start to slip as banks re price around a longer hold, per Canstar savings account comparison. Lock any rate that matters this week if the household has emergency savings not yet parked. Third, if a genuine appliance upgrade, small kitchen replacement or winter garment is on the shortlist, Friday closes Myer Stocktake and David Jones EOFY. Today’s Top 5 includes House at up to 50 per cent off homewares and small appliances as the Australian owned alternative that runs beyond Friday for anyone who wants time to compare.
Thursday Top 5 Deals
Discount
Every store in Thursday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was checked against the store’s current sale page before publication. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Mossman at up to 70 per cent off is the outright winner this morning on dresses, tops and winter knits from the Sydney based womens fashion label. Hallenstein Brothers at 50 per cent off is the sharpest cut in the pool on mens shirts, jeans and jackets. Healthy Life at 50 per cent off vitamins and supplements covers the pre spring health reset window. House at 50 per cent off cookware, small appliances and kitchen tools is the Australian owned alternative to the Myer Stocktake that closes tomorrow. Macpac at 50 per cent off down jackets, fleece and tents backs the August school holiday snow window in New South Wales and Victoria.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Thursday scroll ahead of Friday’s Myer close and the Sunday 2 August fuel excise unwind. Merchant 1948 (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) is at 50 per cent off mens leather boots, shoes and belts from the New Zealand founded, Australia and NZ owned mens footwear brand since 1948. Sussan is at 50 per cent off knits, dresses and lingerie from the Australian womens fashion brand established in 1939. Lee Mathews holds 40 per cent off womens tops, dresses and knitwear from the Sydney based designer label. Novo Shoes is at up to 40 per cent off womens footwear including boots and heels. Veronika Maine holds 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses, coats and knitwear. David Jones EOFY continues alongside Myer Stocktake before Friday 31 July close on womenswear, menswear, homewares and beauty. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets between this morning and the RBA meeting. Thursday 30 July (today): RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivers a fireside chat later this morning; watch for any signal that the RBA reads the softer print as vindication of the current hold. Friday 31 July: last day of the Myer Stocktake Sale and the David Jones EOFY sale, and June retail trade figures land at 11:30am AEST from the ABS, the first look at how households actually spent through the softer CPI window. Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm: the temporary fuel excise cut fully unwinds and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August. Monday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision, now overwhelmingly priced as a hold at 4 point 35 per cent, with the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy the next big directional catalyst.
Our Take
Thursday 30 July is the first quiet morning for Australian mortgage households in eight weeks. The trimmed mean did the work overnight. All four major banks agree there is no August hike, futures agree, the Reserve Bank governor’s Tuesday speech is now retrospectively confirmed as balanced rather than hawkish, and the ASX 200 sits at a five month high. That does not mean rate cuts are coming, and it does not mean the cost of living pressure lifts overnight. Housing costs still rose 6 point 8 per cent over the year and food and non alcoholic beverages rose 3 point 3 per cent, per the ABS release. But the immediate uncertainty is over. The rate you have today is the rate you have through spring. Redirect the buffer: fill the fuel tanks before Sunday, lock a savings rate before it slips, and refresh a refinance quote if the household home loan sits above 6 point 3 per cent.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter jacket clearance” or “small kitchen appliance sale”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales on Thursday morning to make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.