Tuesday morning. Day 2 of the fuel excise passthrough. Metro Brisbane sites are still mostly holding at 1 dollar 99 cents per litre for unleaded, but the first sites have already lifted to 2 dollars 23 to 2 dollars 24, per NRMA chief executive Andrew Baker on ABC News last night. The full transition to peak pump prices of 2 dollars 20 per litre unleaded and 2 dollars 60 per litre diesel will take another 7 to 10 days as the discount inventory in the retail network sells down and higher wholesale cost restocks arrive. That means the metro Monday to Tuesday cycle low still offers the cheapest fill of the week in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Beyond the bowser, the RBA meeting is now just 7 days out, with market pricing on a hold this morning at 97 per cent per Priced In News and interbank futures pricing a hike at just 4 per cent. Today’s Top 5 opens with Princess Polly at up to 80 per cent off women’s fashion.
Fuel Cliff Day Two: The Slow Grind Begins
Twenty four hours into the excise passthrough and the retail picture is playing out exactly as the ACCC and NRMA flagged: a slow, steady grind rather than an overnight 16 cents per litre jump. NRMA chief executive Andrew Baker told ABC News on Monday 3 August 2026 that most Brisbane and Sydney service stations were still holding Monday morning cycle-low prices around 1 dollar 99 cents per litre for unleaded, with only a small number of sites having already jumped to 2 dollars 23 to 2 dollars 24 as their discount inventory ran out first. Baker described the retail transition as “slow but steady” over the next 7 to 10 days as service stations restock at the higher wholesale rate.
The wholesale cost has already fully repriced. From Monday morning every wholesale unleaded and diesel litre sold in Australia now carries the full 53 point 7 cents per litre excise, up 16 point 4 cents from the 37 point 3 cents temporary rate that expired at midnight Sunday, per the Australian Taxation Office fuel excise duty rates table updated 29 July 2026. Peak forecasts from NRMA and RACQ remain at 2 dollars 20 per litre unleaded and 2 dollars 60 per litre diesel by mid August. Australian shoppers with a car parked at home this Tuesday morning still have a genuine window to lock in a cycle-low fill: run MotorMouth or PetrolSpy for a 5 kilometre scan right now and target the cheapest independent site within range. Sydney and Melbourne cycle bottoms typically hold through Tuesday, with retail rebases arriving Wednesday and Thursday, which is exactly when the excise passthrough will bite hardest.
Best Tuesday Fuel Actions Right Now
Four practical actions this Tuesday morning to buffer the household transport budget as the passthrough compounds through the week. First, fill the primary vehicle at a Tuesday cycle-low independent site before 9am. Independents typically undercut the majors by 8 to 12 cents per litre at the cycle bottom, and Monday to Tuesday remain the low points in the Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane cycles. Second, use 7 Eleven Fuel Lock to lock the current price on a second tank for later in the week. Register once, lock the current unleaded or diesel price for up to seven days, redeem mid week when average shelf prices have already ground higher.
Third, top up secondary vessels while cycle-low pricing holds. Camper trailer tank, caravan onboard tank, boat outboard, ride on mower jerry cans, workshop supply. Every 20 litre jerry can filled this morning at cycle low saves roughly 3 dollars 40 cents against likely peak week pricing. Fourth, use the state fuel apps for maximum coverage. In NSW and ACT use Fuel Check NSW. In Western Australia use FuelWatch WA which locks tomorrow’s prices today. Northern Territory has MyFuel NT. Tasmania has FuelCheck TAS. Queensland shoppers can use MotorMouth or PetrolSpy directly. Compare all three tools before you commit to a bowser today.
RBA Hold: 7 Days Out, Markets Now 97 Per Cent Priced
The RBA Monetary Policy Board meets on Monday 10 and Tuesday 11 August, with the cash rate decision published at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August, exactly 7 days from this morning. Market pricing has tightened further overnight. Priced In News now shows the no change consensus at 97 per cent, up 13 point 3 percentage points in a single day, per Priced In News on 3 August 2026. Central Bank Watch’s poll of Australian economists shows 88 point 9 per cent probability of a hold at the 4 August poll, per Central Bank Watch on 4 August 2026. Interbank overnight indexed swap markets are now pricing an August rate hike at just 4 per cent, down from 20 to 22 per cent before the 30 July June quarter CPI print landed at 3 point 8 per cent.
The Big Four are unanimous. Westpac was the last of the four to capitulate on Wednesday 29 July after the CPI print, scrapping its double hike scenario within hours of the release, per The Broker Times on 31 July 2026. Commonwealth Bank economist Trent Saunders wrote that the June quarter print gives “further evidence that underlying inflation pressures are gradually easing”, with CBA now expecting no more hikes across 2026 and the first rate cut in mid to late 2027, per Commonwealth Bank Economic Insights on 30 July 2026. ANZ concurred that markets “should see the RBA keep rates on hold at its August meeting”, per Mortgage Professional Australia on 29 July 2026. Trimmed mean underlying inflation still sits at 3 point 6 per cent, above the 2 to 3 per cent target band, so Governor Michele Bullock’s post decision statement next Tuesday will be watched closely for guidance on the November decision gate.
Grocery Watch: Milk Up 12 Per Cent, Clothing Down 4 Per Cent
Beyond fuel and mortgages, the silent household bill drag continues in the grocery aisle. ABC News on 1 August 2026 reports that Coles and Woolworths lifted their private label milk prices by up to 12 per cent at the same time in April 2026. Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows overall milk prices are up 6 point 17 per cent since February 2026. Bread is up 1 per cent, cheese up 2 point 2 per cent, while eggs and breakfast cereals have actually posted small declines. Personal care is down 0 point 7 per cent since February. Clothing is down 4 point 2 per cent since February, which reinforces just how deep the current winter apparel clearance discounting is running as retailers push seasonal stock ahead of the mid August spring transition.
Consumer confidence continues to reflect the compounding pressure. The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index printed 71 point 2 in late July, a six week low and 15 point 5 points below the same time last year, per Capital Brief on 27 July 2026. Inflation expectations lifted 0 point 1 percentage points to 5 point 9 per cent. ANZ senior economist Sophia Angala pointed to the compounding effects of the Middle East conflict fuel spike earlier this year and a gradually easing labour market as the primary weights on sentiment. The Roy Morgan tracking also shows 39 per cent of Australian shoppers now actively delay purchases until major sale events, up sharply on the same time last year. That delay dynamic is exactly what is driving today’s deep winter clearance in the Top 5.
Retail Spending Holds Up Despite Sentiment Weakness
The contrast between sentiment and actual spending is the story analysts are watching closely into next week’s RBA decision. The Australian Retailers Association reported on 29 July 2026 that retail spending rose 5 point 8 per cent year on year to May 2026, hitting 39 point 67 billion dollars for the month. Growth was recorded across every category. Executive director Chris Rodwell noted that shoppers are spending “with greater intent”, trading down where possible but maintaining overall discretionary volumes. That is the exact backdrop the winter clearance is being pitched into: consumers are spending, but they are demanding deep discounts and are quicker to switch stores when a better deal is available.
Wednesday 6 August at 11:30am AEST brings the June quarter Wage Price Index release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It is the last major macro print before the RBA meeting the following week and gives the Board a fresh read on how strong wages growth still is against the 3 point 8 per cent June quarter CPI. A soft print reinforces the emerging consensus that the tightening cycle is finished. A hot print keeps the November decision gate genuinely in play.
Tuesday Top 5 Deals
Discount
Princess PollyWomen's WearUp to 80 per cent off Princess Polly: dresses, tops, denim, playsuits, jumpsuits, jackets, activewear and accessories from the Gold Coast founded women’s fashion label established in 2010, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal and free Australia wide shipping over 50 dollars.80%OFF2
Baku SwimwearBeachwearUp to 70 per cent off Baku Swimwear: bikinis, one pieces, tankinis, rash tops, kaftans and beach accessories from the Australian owned swimwear label established in Byron Bay in 1990, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.70%OFF3
Graham'sHomewaresUp to 60 per cent off Graham’s Jewellers: rings, earrings, necklaces, bracelets and watches from the Australian owned family jewellery retailer trading since 1985, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal, free Australia wide shipping and free returns.60%OFF4
Original Mattress FactoryBedding & MattressesUp to 60 per cent off Original Mattress Factory: pillow top mattresses, memory foam mattresses, ensembles, adjustable bases and bedroom furniture from the Australian owned mattress manufacturer making mattresses in Sydney and Melbourne since 1990.60%OFF5
GazmanMen's WearUp to 50 per cent off Gazman: business shirts, chinos, jeans, jumpers, jackets, polos, sportcoats and accessories from the Melbourne men’s fashion label established in 1975, with Afterpay, Zip and free click and collect at over 50 Australian stores.50%OFFEvery store in Tuesday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was verified against the store’s own live sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as an Australian brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Princess Polly at up to 80 per cent off is the outright winner this Tuesday morning, with the Gold Coast founded women’s fashion label running deep clearance across dresses, tops, denim, playsuits, jumpsuits, jackets, activewear and accessories. Baku Swimwear at up to 70 per cent off runs bikinis, one pieces, tankinis and beach accessories from the Byron Bay swimwear label. Graham’s Jewellers at up to 60 per cent off holds rings, earrings, necklaces and watches from the Australian family jewellery retailer trading since 1985. Original Mattress Factory at up to 60 per cent off delivers pillow top mattresses, memory foam mattresses and adjustable bases from the Sydney and Melbourne mattress manufacturer. Gazman at up to 50 per cent off runs business shirts, chinos, jeans, jumpers and jackets from the Melbourne men’s fashion label trading since 1975.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Tuesday scroll as the fuel passthrough grinds toward peak. Best and Less (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) holds 30 per cent off women’s, men’s and kids basics from the Australian value fashion chain with over 180 stores nationally. Portmans is at up to 50 per cent off tailoring, dresses, tops and denim from the Australian owned women’s fashion label. Lee Mathews is at 40 per cent off tops, dresses and knitwear from the Sydney designer label. General Pants is at 30 per cent off youth fashion from the Australian owned denim specialist. Veronika Maine is at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses and coats. The Reject Shop and Wittner also feature current promotions worth checking. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets this week. Tuesday 4 August today: Day 2 of the fuel excise passthrough. Metro Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane cycle-low pricing still available at independent sites early morning. Wednesday 6 August at 11:30am AEST: the June quarter Wage Price Index lands from the ABS, the last major macro print before the RBA meeting. Friday 8 August: the RBA finalises its August Statement on Monetary Policy for release with the decision. Monday 10 and Tuesday 11 August: the RBA cash rate decision. Announcement at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August, overwhelmingly priced by markets and all Big Four as a hold at 4 point 35 per cent. Mid August between 15 and 20 August: retailers pivot from deep winter clearance to fresh spring stock, so hold discretionary fashion purchases where timing allows for the transition sale window.
Our Take
Tuesday 4 August is Day 2 of a two speed shopping week. On the wallet drag side, the fuel excise passthrough is still working through the retail network, with metro Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane cycle-low pricing available at independents this morning before the higher wholesale rate catches up mid week. Filling right now, before 9am, at a MotorMouth or PetrolSpy verified independent site is the strongest single fuel savings action a household can take this week. Lock a second tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock for later in the week, top up jerry cans and camper trailer tanks while cycle-low pricing holds. On the wallet ease side, the RBA hold on Tuesday 11 August is now 97 per cent priced, with market probability of an August hike at just 4 per cent and all Big Four banks unanimous. That is meaningful monthly household budget breathing room locked in for the second half of 2026. Retailers are simultaneously running the deepest winter clearance of the year, exactly the window Roy Morgan flagged with 39 per cent of Australian shoppers now actively delaying purchases until major sale events.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “women’s winter clearance” or “queen mattress under 800”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Tuesday morning to make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.