Wednesday morning and the household cash squeeze got a fresh twist overnight: financial markets have doubled the odds of a Reserve Bank rate hike on 12 August to about 30 per cent, up from 16 per cent two weeks ago, with an 80 per cent chance of a hike by November, as the collapse of the US and Iran ceasefire pushed Brent crude up 23 per cent and sent diesel to about 2 dollars 10 a litre. Coles was in Melbourne Federal Court yesterday demanding the ACCC hand over its evidence on the theory of harm behind its Kalgoorlie block, with parallel Competition Tribunal proceedings, fighting the first live test of the new merger regime on two fronts at once. Fresh JLL data shows retail vacancy at 4 point 4 per cent, the lowest since 2018, even as 160 stores prepare to close. Wednesday’s Top 5 opens with Decjuba at up to 70 per cent off.
RBA Rate Hike Odds Double As US Iran War Spikes Fuel Prices
Financial markets have doubled the probability of a Reserve Bank rate hike at its 12 August meeting to about 30 per cent, up from 16 per cent two weeks ago, with an 80 per cent chance of a hike by November, up from 40 per cent, according to fresh ANZ analysis reported by Peter Hannam in The Guardian on Wednesday 22 July 2026. The trigger is the collapse of the US and Iran ceasefire, which sent Brent crude up 23 per cent in two weeks to near 90 US dollars a barrel. Diesel is up about 40 cents in July to roughly 2 dollars 10 a litre in eastern cities, and unleaded is at about 1 dollar 75 a litre, up 25 cents, with part of the increase driven by the partial unwind of the fuel excise cut from 1 July.
Underlying trimmed mean inflation remains at 3.6 per cent, still above the Reserve Bank’s 2 to 3 per cent target band. AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina told markets this week that Australia now faces a two-year path back to the target band if oil prices stay elevated. A fourth rate hike this year, following the three 25 basis point moves earlier in 2026 that took the cash rate to 4 point 35 per cent, would add roughly 90 dollars a month to repayments on a typical 600,000 dollar home loan. The Westpac IQ Cliff Notes for 17 July also flagged that domestic retail turnover rose just 0 point 5 per cent in June after 0 point 8 per cent in May, confirming discretionary demand is soft even before any further tightening (Westpac IQ Cliff Notes, 17 July 2026).
Practical shopper read: the fuel squeeze is the immediate pain and it hits the weekly budget before any RBA decision, roughly 20 to 30 dollars a fortnight extra on a family car and 60 dollars extra on a diesel ute or van. The mortgage risk on 12 August is still more likely a hold than a hike, but the direction of travel matters, and 80 per cent odds by November means households should model the next repayment cycle assuming another 0 point 25 percentage point rise. That in turn widens the deal value gap: at every store, the difference between full price and the current sale price now buys more real relief than it did in April. The households that come out ahead through August and September will be the ones tracking live prices, using the ACCC MyGrocery pilot for supermarkets and independent live-price tools like Today’s Sales for everything else, rather than waiting for the next scheduled monthly sale event.
Coles Demands ACCC Evidence In Kalgoorlie Court Battle
Coles Group was in the Federal Court of Australia in Melbourne yesterday, Tuesday 21 July, at a directions hearing in its appeal against the ACCC decision to block a second Coles supermarket and Liquorland outlet in Kalgoorlie, with parallel proceedings underway at the Australian Competition Tribunal (PerthNow via AAP, 21 July 2026). Coles is now challenging the ACCC decision on two fronts at once, a Federal Court judicial review that tests the legal reasoning of the decision itself, and a Competition Tribunal merits review that reconsiders the underlying commercial evidence (Cat Fredenburgh, Lawyerly, 20 July 2026). Tim Rogan, senior counsel for Coles, told the court the ACCC decision rested on what he called a theory of harm, essentially the regulator’s belief that a second Coles would eventually push out the existing independent IGA competitor in the town of 30,000, and demanded that the ACCC hand over the underlying evidence supporting that theory.
The Kalgoorlie site at Lots 95 to 106 Great Eastern Highway in the Somerville area is the first supermarket application the ACCC has outright refused under the new merger regime that took effect on 1 January 2026, which requires supermarkets to notify the ACCC of any acquisition of a commercial site over 1,000 square metres or a vacant land site over 2,000 square metres. Legal industry publication JD Supra, citing DLA Piper analysis published Monday 21 July, described the case as the first greenfield rejection under the new powers and warned that its outcome will shape how confident supermarket groups can be in pipelining new store sites over the next 24 months (DLA Piper Inside Competition brief via JD Supra, 21 July 2026). ACCC lawyers and lawyers for the Independent Grocers of Australia both attended yesterday’s hearing.
Practical shopper read: yesterday’s directions hearing set the tempo for the full merits review, which will run for several months across both jurisdictions. It did not shift a single grocery price in Kalgoorlie or anywhere else. But the outcome will decide whether the ACCC can keep using its new powers to stop the two biggest supermarket chains adding shelves in country towns where independents still hold ground, or whether the Tribunal and Federal Court will collapse that authority back to something closer to the pre-2026 regime. For grocery shoppers today, the existing Kalgoorlie Coles, Woolworths and IGA stores continue as normal, and the same competitive reality applies across every regional Australian town: the wider the operator mix, the sharper the promotional pricing.
Shopping Centre Vacancy Lowest Since 2018 Despite Store Closure Wave
Retail vacancy across Australian shopping centres has dropped to 4 point 4 per cent, the lowest reading since 2018, according to fresh half-year data from JLL Research published by CommBank Newsroom on Tuesday 15 July (CommBank Newsroom citing JLL Research, 15 July 2026). Large-format retail centres are tightest at 2 point 8 per cent vacancy with rents up 5 point 8 per cent year on year, regional shopping centres sit at 2 per cent vacancy, and CBD centres, while still the highest, are steadily improving. 7News Sunrise, in a segment aired Sunday 20 July, reported that landlords are backfilling closed stores with experiential tenants such as beauty consultation counters, boutique hospitality operators and family amusement, rather than traditional apparel or hard goods retailers (7News Sunrise segment, 20 July 2026).
The paradox is that the low vacancy sits alongside a wave of retailer collapses that could see up to 160 stores close through the second half of 2026, concentrated in clothing, footwear and specialty homewares, including the recently reported administrations at Barbeques Galore, Glue Store, Betts, Stax Wholesalers and the Perth-based Rosendorff Diamond Jewellers, per Business News Western Australia’s July retail wrap. Wesfarmers, the ASX-listed owner of Kmart, Target, Bunnings and Officeworks, is up around 30 per cent from its May low of 71 dollars 26 as investors bet on scale-players benefiting from the consolidation, while Coles Group last week walked away from long-running talks to acquire the Greencross and Petbarn pet-care business. Boffins Books in Perth confirmed it will close after 37 years, and RM Williams announced plans to expand its flagship footprint in western Europe and Japan with a new London store.
Practical shopper read: the centres closest to home are getting fuller, not emptier, but the mix of what fills them is changing quickly. Expect fewer generic apparel chains and more one-of-a-kind Australian brands, more consultation and experience counters, and more hospitality frontage on the main mall run. The stores that survive the current shake-out will be the ones that combine scale (Wesfarmers’ Kmart and Bunnings, Coles, Woolworths, Myer, David Jones) with the specialists that own a genuine niche (RM Williams boots, Robert Gordon pottery, Academy Brand chinos). For a shopper walking a Westfield or Chadstone this weekend, the deals to chase are on the exiting tenants’s runout stock, and on the incoming experiential formats offering opening promotions.
Wednesday’s Top 5 Deals
Discount
DecjubaWomen's WearUp to 70 per cent off Decjuba: dresses, denim, knits, coats, jackets and workwear from the Australian-owned Melbourne-founded womenswear label with over 100 stores nationwide, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over $80.70%OFF2
MyerDepartment StoresUp to 70 per cent off Myer: fashion, beauty, homewares, footwear, kids, electricals and appliances across the Mid Year Toy Sale and winter clearance from the Australian-owned department store, with free shipping for MYER One members over $49.70%OFF3
ColetteFashionUp to 69 per cent off Colette by Colette Hayman: handbags, jewellery, hair accessories, purses, travel bags and gifting from the Australian-owned Sydney-founded accessories brand with over 90 stores, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over $70.69%OFF4
Academy BrandMen's WearUp to 60 per cent off Academy Brand: chinos, shirts, tees, knitwear, jackets and outerwear from the Australian-owned Byron Bay-founded menswear label with 30-plus stores, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over $50.60%OFF5
Robert GordonHomewaresUp to 60 per cent off Robert Gordon: handmade stoneware plates, bowls, mugs, vases, planters and homewares from the Australian-owned family pottery in Pakenham Victoria, hand-thrown since 1978, with Afterpay and Australia-wide shipping.60%OFFEvery store in Wednesday’s Top 5 is Australian-owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was checked against the store’s current sale page before publication. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian-owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Wednesday scroll on the third full week before the fuel excise unwind and the CPI print. Australian Leather (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) has up to 50 per cent off genuine Australian-made ugg boots, ugg slippers, sheepskin gloves and lambskin rugs from the Sydney-based family manufacturer that has been hand-crafting sheepskin footwear since 1963, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over $200. Mossman keeps its Melbourne-designed womenswear runout at up to 70 per cent off dresses, tops, tailored trousers and jackets, with Afterpay and Australia-wide shipping. Sussan is at 50 per cent off its winter womens knitwear, blouses, dresses, sleepwear and accessories from the Australian-owned brand founded in Melbourne in 1939, with Afterpay, Zip and free click-and-collect at 130 stores. Portmans continues 50 per cent off its Australian-designed office and eveningwear collection, from the Australian-owned Melbourne-founded womenswear brand, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over $80. Kathmandu holds at 40 per cent off jackets, thermals, packs, tents, sleeping bags and travel accessories from the Australian and New Zealand-founded outdoor specialist, with free shipping over $50. Rebel is at up to 40 per cent off running shoes, gym gear, football boots, tennis racquets and kids sport from the Australian-owned Super Retail Group brand, with Rebel Active member deals and click-and-collect at over 160 stores. All Australian-owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets between today and mid-August. Tomorrow, Thursday 23 July at 11:30am AEST: the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the June Labour Force report, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4 point 4 per cent, a soft reading would strengthen the case for the RBA to hold on 12 August. Wednesday 29 July at 11:30am AEST: ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index alongside the very first monthly headline CPI print for June, a double release that will fix the RBA’s inflation reading for the August rate meeting. Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm: the temporary fuel excise cut fully unwinds, with full excise of 52 point 8 cents per litre resuming from Monday 3 August, average pump prices are expected to rise a further 10 to 12 cents per litre through the following week on top of the current mid-crude spike. Tuesday 12 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash-rate decision, with markets now pricing about a 30 per cent chance of a 0 point 25 percentage point hike, up from 16 per cent two weeks ago, and roughly a 70 per cent chance of a hold. Also running today and tomorrow, the Online Retailer Conference & Expo at ICC Sydney, drawing about 4,000 Australian retail and ecommerce professionals through Wednesday and Thursday.
Our Take
Wednesday 22 July is the moment the household budget arithmetic changed. Two weeks ago, the market was pricing a comfortable RBA hold on 12 August at 84 per cent, and the fuel excise wind-down looked like the biggest wallet risk on the horizon. This morning, that hold probability has fallen to 70 per cent, the November hike odds have doubled to 80 per cent, and pump prices are running roughly 40 cents higher on diesel and 25 cents higher on unleaded before the excise has even fully returned. For a household running a mortgage, a car and a weekly grocery shop, the direction of the next 12 weeks is unambiguously tighter, and the response is not to spend less overall (that is not possible for most households already at the limit), but to spend smarter, on Australian retailers running genuine live-price discounts rather than on offshore marketplaces or theatre promotions.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian-owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “womens winter knitwear under 100” or “genuine ugg boots half price”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales on Wednesday morning ahead of a fortnight that will genuinely reshape the balance between fuel costs, mortgage repayments and household spending power, and make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket.