Tuesday morning update on the two events that will decide whether the Reserve Bank hikes on 11 August. RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers her Anika Foundation lunch address in Sydney today at 1:05pm AEST. The ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index tomorrow, Wednesday 29 July, at 11:30am AEST. The 16 cent per litre fuel excise cut ends at 11:59pm on Sunday 2 August, so the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August. Myer Stocktake and the David Jones EOFY sale enter their final days ahead of Thursday 31 July close. Today’s Top 5 opens with Princess Polly at up to 80 per cent off, and closes with Gazman at 50 per cent off.
Bullock Today, CPI Tomorrow: The 24 Hours That Decide 11 August
Between now and 11:31am tomorrow, Australian households learn how likely the Reserve Bank is to lift the cash rate to 4 point 6 per cent on Monday 11 August. RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney today at 1:05pm AEST, her only major set piece before the board meets, per Cameron England writing at The West Australian on 27 July 2026. Governors do not typically pre commit at Anika lunches, but the tone Bullock strikes on services inflation, the June quarter labour market and inflation expectations will move futures pricing before Wednesday morning. Tomorrow at 11:30am AEST, the ABS releases both the June quarter CPI and the June monthly headline CPI, per the RBA Coming Up calendar.
Consensus per Elias Haddad at BBH is a headline of 4 point 0 per cent year on year for the second straight month, with the trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred underlying gauge, rising to a two year high at 3 point 7 per cent year on year from 3 point 6 per cent in May, per the Mitrade rate preview on 27 July 2026. ANZ Research is at 0 point 9 per cent quarter on quarter and 3 point 7 per cent year on year on the trimmed mean, per the ANZ note reported by MarketScreener on 24 July. Perpetual sees market expectations of 0 point 9 per cent quarter on quarter and 3 point 7 per cent year on year on the trimmed mean, per the Perpetual weekly update on 27 July. The RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy pencilled the trimmed mean peak near 3 point 9 per cent, per the PIP Theory CPI preview.
The read across for the 11 August cash rate call. A trimmed mean print at or below 3 point 6 per cent quarter on quarter close to 0 point 8 per cent skews strongly toward a hold, likely with dovish forward guidance and softer futures pricing. A trimmed mean at 3 point 7 to 3 point 8 per cent, in line with consensus, keeps a hike live but likely holds the cash rate at 4 point 35 per cent on 11 August. A print at 3 point 9 per cent or higher on the trimmed mean, particularly with services inflation still above 4 per cent, sharply lifts the probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4 point 60 per cent on 11 August. Rate futures on 27 July priced roughly a 33 to 40 per cent chance of an August hike per Perpetual, so the CPI print will move that pricing quickly in either direction.
Tuesday To Sunday: The Household Preparedness List
Regardless of which way tomorrow’s trimmed mean prints, Tuesday 28 July is a good day for three tangible household jobs before Wednesday morning. First, if the household has a variable rate home loan of 400,000 dollars or more, run a rate check today with Canstar, Mozo or Finder and save or print the top three refinance offers. If Wednesday’s trimmed mean prints at or above 3 point 9 per cent, calls to mortgage brokers on Wednesday afternoon will be difficult to book, and every day of delay on a hot print costs the household roughly one 24th of a monthly repayment on the higher rate. Second, open the household direct debit list and cancel any subscription that has not been used in the last 60 days. Every 10 dollar a month saving locked in this week creates 300 dollars of household headroom over the next 30 months, roughly equivalent to a 25 basis point rate cut on a 300,000 dollar loan.
Third, fill both cars today or tomorrow at cycle low, and lock a second tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock or Costco Fuel for the seven day price hold, before the 16 cent per litre fuel excise cut fully unwinds at 11:59pm on Sunday 2 August. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed on Sunday’s ABC Insiders that the relief will not be extended, per SBS News on 27 July 2026. The ACCC weekly fuel price report published 24 July shows national retail petrol averaging 179 point 5 cents per litre across the five capital cities, up 28 cents per litre since 30 June, with diesel at 214 point 9 cents up 41 point 4 cents, per IndexBox on the ACCC July 2026 fuel report. A two car household that fills today at cycle low and locks a second tank saves roughly 45 to 60 dollars over filling both tanks for the first time on Monday 3 August.
Check MotorMouth, PetrolSpy or the free 7 Eleven Fuel Lock app for a cycle low near home. For families still on winter school holidays, top up jerry cans and the camper trailer or boat tank over Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning while metro pricing is still relatively low.
Myer Stocktake, David Jones EOFY: Three Days Left
The two department store post EOFY sales that opened in mid July close by end of trading on Thursday 31 July. The Myer Stocktake Sale runs up to 61 per cent off select kitchen appliances, up to 50 per cent off personal care and hair tools including Dyson, Shark, GHD and Philips, up to 60 per cent off travel gear including Samsonite and American Tourister, up to 54 per cent off cookware, and up to 20 per cent off select Lego sets, per Getprice on 27 July 2026. The David Jones EOFY sale runs alongside on womenswear, menswear, homewares and beauty. Both close by end of Thursday 31 July.
Practical read for Tuesday. If the household is upgrading a coffee machine, a small appliance, a suitcase before winter school holiday travel, or a hair tool, the Myer window closes Thursday and stock on the sharpest cuts is already thinning. If Wednesday’s CPI is hot, expect Myer and David Jones to hold pricing through the final 48 hours rather than deepen. If it is soft, some 20 to 30 per cent cuts may nudge to 40 per cent on the final day, but expecting deeper cuts on tight stock lines is a low probability bet. The winter apparel window is the second consideration. Late July is the deepest markdown phase on outerwear, knitwear, boots and thermal base layers, with the sharpest reductions in the last two weeks before spring transitional ranges land, per ShopBack on 24 July 2026.
Amazon Prime Video ACCC Case Still Live
The ACCC has continued its Federal Court proceedings against Amazon Australia and Amazon.com in the United States over unfair contract terms tied to the Prime Video advertising rollout, per Page Seager on 24 July 2026. The core allegation is that Amazon relied on unilateral variation clauses in its subscription contracts to introduce advertising to what was sold as an ad free tier, while also increasing the price of the ad free upgrade. The ACCC estimates more than one million Australian annual subscribers were affected. The case is a test of the strengthened unfair contract terms regime in force since November 2023, which now allows civil penalties, not just declarations that the terms are void.
Practical Tuesday step for any household currently subscribed to Amazon Prime. Log in at amazon.com.au, review the Prime Video ad settings, and decide whether the ad free upgrade is worth the extra outlay. If not, the annual Prime membership can be cancelled at any time and any unused period may be eligible for a partial refund under the Australian Consumer Law. On the wider subscription creep question, this is the right week to open the household direct debit list and cancel or pause anything unused in the last 60 days. If a variable rate home loan repayment lifts 100 dollars a month on 11 August, the household will already have saved 20 to 40 dollars of the shortfall by cutting subscriptions this week.
Tuesday Top 5 Deals
Discount
Princess PollyWomen's WearUp to 80 per cent off Princess Polly: dresses, tops, denim, coats, activewear and accessories from the Gold Coast founded Australian owned womens fashion label, with Afterpay, Zip, PayPal and free returns on eligible orders.80%OFF2
BakuBeachwearUp to 70 per cent off Baku Swimwear: one pieces, bikinis, resort wear, cover ups, kaftans and rashies from the Australian owned family run swimwear label, with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over 100 dollars.70%OFF3
Grahams JewellersJewelleryUp to 60 per cent off Grahams Jewellers: diamond rings, gold chains, tennis bracelets, earrings and mens jewellery from the fourth generation Australian family owned jeweller, with interest free finance on selected pieces and free Australia wide shipping.60%OFF4
Original Mattress FactoryBedding & MattressesUp to 60 per cent off Original Mattress Factory: pocket spring mattresses, memory foam beds, ensembles, bases and pillows manufactured in Sydney by the Australian owned mattress maker, with 30 night comfort trial, free metro delivery and Afterpay.60%OFF5
GazmanMen's WearUp to 50 per cent off Gazman: mens business shirts, chinos, jeans, jumpers, tailoring, jackets and polos from the Australian owned menswear label since 1975, with Afterpay, Zip, free returns and free shipping over 100 dollars.50%OFFEvery store in Tuesday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was checked against the store’s current sale page before publication. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Princess Polly at up to 80 per cent off is the outright winner this morning, and Baku Swimwear at up to 70 per cent off is the second sharpest cut in the pool. If a rate hike lands on 11 August, buying now with Afterpay locks the sale price without paying interest.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Tuesday scroll ahead of Wednesday’s CPI print and the Sunday 2 August fuel excise unwind. General Pants (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) is at 30 per cent off denim, tees, jackets, dresses and streetwear from the Australian owned youth fashion retailer since 1972, with over 60 stores nationally. Sussan holds 50 per cent off knits, dresses and lingerie from the Australian womens fashion brand established in 1939. Veronika Maine stays at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses, coats and knitwear from the Country Road Group. Myer Stocktake runs up to 61 per cent off kitchen appliances, 50 per cent off personal care tools and up to 60 per cent off travel gear before Thursday 31 July close, and the David Jones EOFY sale continues alongside. For household bedding, Forty Winks is running up to 50 per cent off mattresses and 30 per cent off furniture per news.com.au’s deals of the week roundup, and Pillow Talk Comfort Club members can stack an extra 40 per cent off clearance. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Five dates matter for Australian shopper wallets between today and mid August. Tuesday 28 July at 1:05pm AEST: RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers the Anika Foundation lunch address in Sydney, the last scheduled RBA speech before the CPI print and the August meeting. Wednesday 29 July at 11:30am AEST: the ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index and the June monthly headline CPI, the release that fixes the inflation reading heading into the RBA 11 August decision. Thursday 31 July: last day of the Myer Stocktake Sale and the David Jones EOFY sale, plus RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter delivers a fireside chat at 10:30am AEST. Sunday 2 August at 11:59pm: the temporary fuel excise cut fully unwinds and the full 52 point 6 cents per litre excise resumes from Monday 3 August. Monday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision, currently priced at roughly a 33 to 40 per cent chance of a 25 basis point hike to 4 point 60 per cent depending on tomorrow’s CPI print.
Our Take
Tuesday 28 July is a preparedness day, not a spending day. Three tangible household jobs before 11:31am Wednesday. First, if the household has a variable rate home loan, run a rate check today with Canstar, Mozo or Finder and save the top three refinance offers so any call to a broker after the CPI print takes 10 minutes, not two hours. Second, cancel or pause any household subscription that has not been used in the last 60 days, freeing up 20 to 40 dollars a month of headroom before the 11 August cash rate call. Third, fill both cars this week at cycle low and lock a second tank on 7 Eleven Fuel Lock before Sunday to protect against the Monday 3 August full excise unwind. Every household that gets these three jobs done today or tomorrow will be materially better positioned regardless of what the trimmed mean prints tomorrow morning.
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