Thursday morning. Day 4 of the fuel excise passthrough and Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan pumps have now fully rebased through the standard midweek cycle. The gap between cheapest E10 and dearest Premium 98 has hit a record 26 point 5 cents per litre, up from 17 point 4 cents in 2012, per NRMA analysis cited by the Sydney Morning Herald. At 11:30am AEST today the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the June international trade balance, the last major domestic data print before the RBA cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August, now just 5 days away. Priced In News shows the no change consensus at 97 per cent. Today is also the opening day of ASX full year profit season, with retailer FY26 results starting to land. Today’s Top 5 opens with House at up to 80 per cent off homewares.
Fuel Day Four: Metro Rebase Fully Bites
Day 4 of the excise passthrough and metropolitan pumps in Sydney and Melbourne have now fully absorbed the Wednesday cycle rebase compounded with the excise reset. National average unleaded pump prices reached 1 dollar 97 cents per litre at the day one Monday reading and diesel 2 dollars 39 point 2 cents per litre, per Nine Newspapers on 3 August 2026 citing NRMA analysis. NRMA data also showed wholesale unleaded rebased to 2 dollars 1 point 5 cents per litre and diesel to 2 dollars 43 cents per litre on Monday, meaning by Day 4 practically every metropolitan retail site is now working through fully rebased stock carrying the full 53 point 7 cents per litre excise, per the ATO fuel excise Table 1.
The record spread between the cheapest E10 and dearest Premium 98 unleaded is the strongest fuel grade signal in a decade. NRMA reports the E10 to Premium 98 gap has hit 26 point 5 cents per litre, up from 17 point 4 cents in 2012, per Nine Newspapers. On a 55 litre tank that spread is worth roughly 14 dollars 30 cents. Peak forecast pump prices remain at 2 dollars 20 unleaded and 2 dollars 60 diesel by mid August, per RACQ principal economist Ian Jeffreys via ABC News on 2 August 2026. ACCC monitoring of the 5 largest capital cities showed the daily average retail petrol price at 193 point 6 cents per litre on 29 July, up 42 point 1 cents from 30 June, and diesel at 232 point 8 cents per litre, up 59 point 3 cents, per ACCC weekly fuel price monitoring on 24 July 2026. Regional averages across 190 monitored locations sat at 198 point 5 cents per litre. That is the baseline from which Day 4 compounds.
Fuel Actions For Thursday
Three practical actions this Thursday morning. First, if the vehicle handbook allows, drop from Premium to 91 or E10 unleaded for the next fill. The 26 point 5 cent per litre spread between the cheapest and dearest grades is a household budget lever worth roughly 14 dollars 30 cents on a 55 litre tank. Never run E10 in a vehicle that does not accept it. Check the fuel filler cap or the vehicle handbook first. Second, use the state fuel apps in parallel. Fuel Check NSW for New South Wales and ACT, FuelWatch WA for Western Australia where prices are locked 24 hours in advance, MyFuel NT for Northern Territory, FuelCheck TAS for Tasmania. Queenslanders use MotorMouth or PetrolSpy. Third, lock a second tank price with 7 Eleven Fuel Lock at any nominated 7 Eleven site for a 7 day price hedge.
Trade Balance June Lands 11:30am AEST
At 11:30am AEST today the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the June international trade balance. The prior May print showed a 3 billion 18 million dollar trade deficit, the worst in a year. Trading Economics consensus is a narrower 1 billion 800 million dollar deficit. May exports were 43 billion 610 million dollars against imports of 46 billion 630 million dollars. This is the last major domestic economic print before the RBA cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August, so bond and rate strategists will read it closely for iron ore, coal and LNG signals against a softening China backdrop. A wider than expected deficit would soften the Australian dollar and marginally reinforce the near unanimous RBA hold consensus. A narrower print signals resilient external demand and, at the margin, gives the RBA more cover for its “hike if required” language to remain in play.
Trade balance is a second tier print in the RBA hierarchy behind CPI, employment and WPI, but with 5 days to the meeting every data point now matters. Markets are priced for a 97 per cent no change probability, per Priced In News on 29 July 2026. Interbank overnight indexed swaps show a 4 per cent hike probability per Commerzbank economist Volkmar Baur via TMGM on 29 July 2026. All Big Four are now unanimous on hold at 4 point 35 per cent. CBA head of Australian economics Belinda Allen wrote on 30 July 2026 that “there is little need to tighten further given the combination of data prints since June”. Westpac, the last major hawk, dropped its two more hike call to 4 dollars 85 within a day of the June CPI release.
Retailer Profit Season Opens Today
Today Thursday 6 August is officially day one of the ASX full year profit season, per the Australian Financial Review profit season calendar published 4 August 2026. For Australian retail shoppers, the consumer angle is straightforward: retailer FY26 numbers now start landing over the next four weeks, and every retailer running with a soft top line has a strong reason to run aggressive winter clearance for the last three or four weeks of the sale window. That is exactly the discount pressure underlying today’s Top 5, where House is at up to 80 per cent off, Mossman is at up to 70 per cent off winter women’s fashion, and category leaders across menswear, health and beauty, outdoor and footwear are all sitting at 50 per cent off headline discounts. When a retailer’s FY26 sales miss the analyst consensus, the September and October relaunch cycle is compressed. Deep winter clearance now is the pressure valve.
Key retailer results the shopper should watch: JB Hi Fi, Nick Scali, Adairs, Super Retail Group and Wesfarmers all report over the coming three weeks. On the banking side, CBA reports its FY26 full year result on Wednesday 12 August, the day after the RBA decision, which typically sets the tone for the household lending market. For the average shopper, the practical read across is that ANY retailer heavily promoted through late July and early August is likely trying to buffer a soft FY26 outcome, which means the deep discount cycle underway right now is not just seasonal, it is FY reporting driven. This is the sharpest single week of the year to run down remaining winter apparel, footwear and homewares.
Consumer Angle: Grocery, Clothing And Household Spend
Beyond fuel, the two biggest shopper wallets to watch this Thursday morning are groceries and winter clothing. Cuugo Grocery Price Index this week: Aldi 74 dollars 53 cents (winner), Coles 72 dollars 25 cents, Woolworths 79 dollars 25 cents, IGA 101 dollars 2 cents. All three majors are down week on week: Woolworths 3 dollars 12 cents cheaper, Coles 4 dollars 40 cents cheaper, Aldi 2 dollars 63 cents cheaper. A multi store weekly shop that buys each item at the cheapest store this week comes to 61 dollars 67 cents, saving 12 dollars 86 cents versus even the cheapest single store total. On non promotional pricing Coles is 4 to 6 per cent cheaper than Woolworths for fresh produce, verified in Melbourne postcode 3000 per ShopBack on 30 July 2026.
On the household spending side, the ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator released Monday showed spending rose 0 point 8 per cent in June to 81 point 3 billion dollars, with the annual pace lifting to 6 per cent, a three month high, per Reuters on 4 August 2026. New vehicle sales were the standout, up 3 per cent, with electric vehicle sales driving the momentum per ABS head of business statistics Tom Lay. Spending resilience against weakening Roy Morgan consumer confidence, which sat at a six week low last week, is the exact backdrop retailers are pitching this final winter clearance window into. Australian shoppers are still spending, but Roy Morgan tracking shows 39 per cent now actively delay purchases until major sale events. Discounts as deep as today’s House 80 per cent off are the trigger that converts intent to purchase.
Thursday Top 5 Deals
Discount
HouseHomewaresUp to 80 per cent off House: kitchenware, cookware, small appliances, glassware, bakeware, bathroomware and dining essentials from Australia’s homewares specialist trading since 1994 with more than 175 stores nationwide, plus Afterpay, Zip and free click and collect.80%OFF2
MossmanWomen's WearUp to 70 per cent off Mossman: dresses, knitwear, tops, coats, denim and accessories from the Melbourne founded contemporary women’s fashion label, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.70%OFF3
HallensteinsMen's WearUp to 50 per cent off Hallensteins Brothers: shirts, jumpers, chinos, jeans, jackets and outerwear from the Trans Tasman men’s fashion label with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.50%OFF4
Healthy LifeHealth & BeautyUp to 50 per cent off Healthy Life: vitamins, supplements, protein, sports nutrition, natural beauty and organic groceries from the Australian owned online health specialist with Afterpay, Zip and free shipping over 99 dollars.50%OFF5
MacpacOutdoor & CampingUp to 50 per cent off Macpac: outdoor jackets, fleece, hiking boots, tents, sleeping bags, hiking packs and travel gear from the New Zealand founded outdoor label with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.50%OFFEvery store in Thursday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was verified against the store’s own live sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. House at up to 80 per cent off is the outright winner this Thursday, with Australia’s homewares specialist since 1994 running deep clearance across kitchenware, cookware, small appliances, glassware, bakeware, bathroomware and dining essentials from more than 175 nationwide stores. Mossman at up to 70 per cent off runs dresses, knitwear, tops, coats and denim from the Melbourne founded contemporary women’s fashion label. Hallensteins Brothers at up to 50 per cent off holds shirts, jumpers, chinos, jeans and outerwear from the Trans Tasman men’s fashion label. Healthy Life at up to 50 per cent off runs vitamins, supplements, protein, sports nutrition, natural beauty and organic groceries from the Australian owned online health specialist. Macpac at up to 50 per cent off delivers outdoor jackets, fleece, hiking boots, tents, sleeping bags, hiking packs and travel gear.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Thursday scroll as the fuel passthrough grinds toward peak. Merchant 1948 (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) holds up to 50 per cent off Trans Tasman heritage footwear. MyHouse is at up to 50 per cent off homewares. Portmans is at up to 50 per cent off tailoring, dresses, tops and denim from the Australian owned women’s fashion label. Lee Mathews is at 40 per cent off tops, dresses and knitwear from the Sydney designer label. Veronika Maine is at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses and coats. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets over the next five days. Thursday 6 August today: Day 4 of the fuel excise passthrough with the metropolitan Wednesday cycle rebase now fully compounded, plus Trade Balance June at 11:30am AEST from the ABS, plus opening day of ASX full year profit season. Friday 7 August: RBA finalises its August Statement on Monetary Policy for release with the decision. Monday 10 August: RBA meeting day one, plus Westpac Consumer Confidence for August 8:30pm AEST and NAB Business Confidence for July 9:30pm AEST. Tuesday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision. Overwhelmingly priced by markets and all Big Four as a hold at 4 point 35 per cent, with Governor Michele Bullock’s post decision statement the key signal for the November gate. Wednesday 12 August: CBA FY26 full year result and dividend announcement, day after the RBA decision. Mid August between 15 and 20 August: retailers pivot from deep winter clearance to fresh spring stock.
Our Take
Thursday 6 August is Day 4 of a compounding wallet pressure story. On the wallet drag side, Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan pumps have now fully absorbed the Wednesday cycle rebase compounded with the 53 point 7 cent per litre excise reset. The record 26 point 5 cent E10 to Premium 98 gap is the strongest single signal to drop fuel grade this week where the vehicle handbook allows. On the wallet ease side, retailers are running some of the deepest single day discounts of the year at exactly the moment their FY26 profit season begins, which means the discount cycle is not just seasonal, it is profit reporting driven. Aldi is still winning the weekly grocery basket at 74 dollars 53 cents. Household spending was up 0 point 8 per cent in June, meaning discretionary appetite is holding up. The RBA hold on Tuesday 11 August is now 97 per cent priced. Trade Balance June at 11:30am AEST today is the last major domestic data gate before the meeting.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “homewares clearance” or “outdoor camping sale”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Thursday morning to make your money go further with Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.